12/27/2007 2:12:24 AM

Blu-Ray could be outselling HD-DVD by a 100:1 margin, but it still wouldn't change the fact that "next generation" DVDs are under performing across the board. It's not that DVDs are outselling those two formats (that's a given), but the problem is that the next gen DVDs are doing worse than DVDs were at the same time. DVD didn't exactly take off at launch either, but I'm not too surprised to see it doing better then than the new formats are doing now.

The problem is simple, the average consumer does not see a big reason to buy a next gen DVD player or movies. Tech heads and those who simply have to have their movies in the best quality imaginable are jumping on board, but nobody else seems to be. For most consumers there just isn't a compelling reason to buy one of these systems yet, especially when they already have a DVD player and a DVD library.

Keep in mind, the "average" consumer stuck with VHS long after it should have died. The quality of a VHS tape was horrible at best, and the fact that the quality would get worse with each viewing only made the whole situation worse. Yet people stuck with VHS for years. Heck, a lot of people stuck with VHS long after DVD was viable. It wasn't until stores started moving from VHS to DVD that most people took the plunge. At that point you could buy an entry-level DVD player for $50 (or $19, if you weren't afraid of getting trampled at Wal-Mart on Black Friday).

The point is, people aren't going to change formats unless they absolutely need to. Just look at the facts, a 2007 study showed that nearly half of the people who bought/own an HDTV don't even have anything HD plugged into it. These are people that actually spent the money to buy a new TV, not the masses that will only get an HDTV when they absolutely have to. I don't give this group of "average consumers" a lot of credit, they haven't exactly proven themselves in the past (if you know what I mean). Yes HD-DVD and Blu-Ray looks better, but how many people out there really care enough to spend the money to buy a new system?

I don't see a lot of hope for either of these two formats, I suspect that it's only a matter of time before Microsoft (and other companies) start releasing easy to use set-top boxes that allow you to download HD movies. They already have the tracks down for something like this and pretty much everybody seems to agree that downloadable media is the future of games, movies, music, etc. While I hate the idea of not having physical media, I definitely see this as more of a step forward than what HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are giving us.

Cyril Lachel

12/31/2007 9:43:45 AM

I would remind you that your cousin situation is anecdotal at best. That's not to say that there isn't any traction, but knowing one person who is interested does not a trend make. Of course it will become more popular, but there are just as many people who don't want to buy a new DVD player. Not to mention all of the people that continue to believe that their DVD movies will be replaced. At some point this group may come around, but that still doesn't change the fact that a lot of people think that it's too soon to upgrade to a different DVD player.

I am one of those people. I have absolutely no interest in buying Blu-Ray DVDs or HD-DVDs. I don't feel like choosing sides, and the movies I want (smaller indie films, old foreign films, etc.) aren't improved by a slightly clearer resolution. I have no stake in this battle, it really doesn't matter who wins as far as I'm concerned. But a big part of me feels that neither side will win, instead we're going to have two companies battle it out until both lose. I suspect something will come after it that will be the true successor, be it another physical media or downloadable films.

As for downloading movies, we are still in the infancy of that technology, so using Microsoft's recent problems seems a little premature. The Xbox Live service has a good track record, even if they have hit a bump or two in the last week. The service is still relatively young, it's getting its footing before it's ready for prime time. It's only a matter of time before things start to switch to On Demand and download ready services. All it will take is a company offering the right content for the right price. Microsoft isn't quite there yet.

Cyril Lachel